Poland’s energy transition will only succeed with strong public policies based on long-term planning. The CO₂ pricing system creates market-based incentives to move away from fossil fuels – but other instruments are also needed, such as support schemes for investment in green technologies or public infrastructure development programmes. Transition planning is a multidimensional task requiring an in-depth understanding of its technical and economic conditions.
Instrat has been providing scenarios of the Polish energy transition based on its in-house energy modelling since 2020. The scenarios provide the Polish public debate with a vision of an ambitious decarbonisation in line with EU climate policy. The quantitative scenario analyses we conduct using the PyPSA-PL model allow us to identify the priorities and challenges associated with such a transition.
PyPSA-PL is an optimisation model of the Polish energy system. The PyPSA-PL model – our in-house adaptation of the PyPSA tool – simulates the operation of the electricity, heat, light road mobility and hydrogen sectors in an integrated manner. It also indicates optimal investment decisions under a wide range of assumptions about fuel and infrastructure costs, CO₂ fees, as well as a number of constraints, such as maximum deployment rates and capacity potentials for various technologies.
PyPSA-PL optimises the operation of the energy system over 8760 hours in a representative year. The hourly time resolution allows for a sound assessment of the balancing challenges of a RES-based energy system. The full-year modelling scope, on the other hand, provides satisfactorily robust statistics on the availability of solar and wind energy and the demand for electricity and heat. Such high temporal resolution and temporal scope of the optimisation sets our tool apart from other models of the Polish energy system.
PyPSA-PL fits into the global trend of open energy modelling. In the Polish context, PyPSA-PL is the only publicly available optimisation model of our national energy system. The model is released with the input data under an open licence on GitHub, and the output data are available at Zenodo. We have also created a simplified version of the model – PyPSA-PL-mini – which can be run free of charge on an online computing platform.
The following publications have been published as part of the project:
- Kubiczek, P., Smoleń, M., Żelisko, W. (2023). Poland approaching carbon neutrality. Four scenarios for the Polish energy transition until 2040. Instrat Policy Paper 06/2023.
- Kubiczek, P. (2023). Baseload power. Modelling the costs of low flexibility of the Polish power system. Instrat Policy Paper 04/2023.
- Kubiczek, P., Smoleń, M. (2023). Poland cannot afford medium ambitions. Savings driven by fast deployment of renewables by 2030. Instrat Policy Paper 03/2023.
- Czyżak, P., Wrona, A., Borkowski, M. (2021). The missing element. Energy security considerations. Instrat Policy Paper 09/2021.
- Czyżak, P., Sikorski, M., Wrona, A. (2021). What’s next after coal? RES potential in Poland. Instrat Policy Paper 06/2021.
- Czyżak, P., Wrona, A. (2021). Achieving the goal. Departure from coal in the Polish power sector. Instrat Policy Paper 01/2021.
